A stable, well-functioning financial market for allA stable, well-functioning financial market for allFI Analysis
FI’s assignment is to promote financial stability and strong consumer protection. The stability assignment has been expanded to include the prevention of financial imbalances with the aim of stabilising the credit market. It requires a more extensive analysis and FI becomes clearer about the positions that authority takes. FI therefore issues a series of reports entitled FI Analysis. This series presents investigations and analyses of key issues for FI’s area of responsibility. FI Analysis reports are issued several times a year.
2020
FI Analysis 26: Macro-based credit loss model for major Swedish banks
Large credit losses can result in otherwise profitable banks reporting a loss. This FI Analysis describes a methodology for estimating how large credit losses can be in a stressed macroeconomic scenario.
FI Analysis 25: Interest rate deductions and households’ loans
The tax rebate for interest expenses – the interest deduction – means that households borrow more, and can and want to pay more for homes. This means that the households experience an increase in both their liabilities and assets, which in turn could have an impact on the stability of the financial system. In this FI Analysis, we calculate the impact of a change to the interest deduction. The reason for this analysis is the direct link between interest deductions and households’ loans.
FI Analysis 24: Stress test of bank lending to commercial real estate firms
Commercial real estate firms are sensitive to changes in interest rate expenses and income. Following a shock, vulnerable commercial real estate firms could lead to credit losses for the banks.
FI Analysis 23: Can the bond market dampen the credit cycle?
The access of non-financial firms to credit is central for financial stability, particularly during financial crises. In recent years, the market for corporate bonds has grown steadily and currently plays an important role in firms’ financing. This analysis shows that it has not been easier to issue corporate bonds in Swedish krona during financial crises than to take a bank loan. This pattern deviates from previous research on the USA and the euro zone.
FI Analysis 22: Fewer high-cost short-term credits after new rules
After the provisions regarding high-cost short-term credits were changed in 2018 – in part by introducing an interest rate ceiling and cost ceiling – these types of loans decreased sharply. It is probable that the reform has led to a decrease in the supply of high-cost short-term credits. It is also evident that several companies have stopped offering such loans.
FI Analysis 21: New liquidity indicators for the fixed-income market
The Swedish fixed-income market – which consists of the bond market, the money market and interest rate derivatives – is important for the government, municipalities, banks and firms to be able to finance their operations and manage risks. It is therefore of central importance to understand how these markets function and, more specifically, how liquid they are. This FI Analysis presents a new method for measuring market liquidity that focuses on government bonds and covered bonds.
2019
FI Analysis 20: Fewer home equity withdrawals after amortisation requirements
This FI Analysis shows that households’ tendency to use mortgages for purchases other than buying a home decreased following the amortisation requirements.
FI Analysis 19: Young adults and the housing market
This FI Analysis shows that the the increase in house prices is the primary reason it has become more difficult for young adults to buy a home.
FI Analysis 18: Swedish risk premia and monetary policy
A disorderly and abrupt increase in international market rates could lead to significantly higher term and equity risk premia. This is the conclusion of an analysis conducted by FI.
FI-analysis 17: Fewer Vulnerable Households after Stricter Amortisation Requirement
Under FI's stricter amortisation requirement, which went into effect on 1 March 2018, new mortgagors with debt in excess of 450 per cent of gross income must amortise 1 percentage point more of their loan per year in addition to the existing requirement. The objective of the stricter requirement is to strengthen resilience of households by decreasing the number of mortgagors who have high debt in relation to their income.
FI Analysis 16: How do covered bonds function?
This FI Analysis describes how Swedish covered bonds function, how the regulation governing the cover pool is designed and how the cover pool is affected by a fall in house prices.
FI Analysis 15: Do banks still benefit from an expectation of an implicit state guarantee?
A new report from Finansinspektionen and the Swedish National Debt Office shows that the value of an implicit state guarantee for the major Swedish banks has decreased since the financial crisis in 2008–2009. This decrease is due to higher capital and liquidity requirements on the banks, a new regulation for managing banks in crisis and improved market conditions.
2018
FI Analysis 14: Reference rates are changing
Reference rates are important since they are used in many financial contracts, and it is therefore crucial that they are fair, transparent and accurately reflect the underlying market.
FI-analysis 13: Low for long and large annuity payments
Theprevailing low interest rate environment is challenging for pension managers who pledge a guaranteed rate of return to their beneficiaries.
FI-analysis 12: The mortgage cap reduced household debt
This FI Analysis presents an assessment of the Swedish mortgage cap. The analysis indicates that the mortgage cap has changed household behaviour. Households with new mortgages borrow less than what they would have done if FI had not implemented the mortgage cap. They are also buying less expensive homes.
2017
FI Analysis 11: Consequences of a stricter amortisation requirement
Households with high loan-to-income ratios, i.e. large loans in relation to income, are vulnerable. They are sensitive to rising interest rates since their monthly expenses are affected more than households with lower loan-to-income ratios. They are also somewhat more sensitive to a loss of income, for example if they become unemployed.
FI Analysis 10: Amortisation requirement reduced household debt
This FI Analysis shows that the amortisation requirement has helped households with new mortgages change their behavior. New mortgagors are taking smaller mortgages than what they would have done if FI had not implemented the amortisation requirement. These households are also buying less expensive homes.
FI Analysis 9: Households’ interest rate adjustment periods – an economic vulnerability?
SUMMARY: In Sweden, both the percentage of mortgages that have a variable interest rate and household debts have risen sharply. This combination has made house-holds sensitive to rising interest rates.
FI Analysis 8: Vulnerability indicators for liquidity
The vulnerability indicators FI identifies in this analysis show a slightly elevated level of vulnerability for liquidity. Several indicators contribute to this.
2016
FI Analysis 7: Leverage ratio as a minimum requirement reduces banks’ buffers
A leverage ratio requirement could contribute positively to financial stability during normal conditions in that it increases the robustness of banks' capital adequacy.
