The pandemic has triggered a deep economic recession in many countries, even if a slight recovery has begun. Extensive support measures have mitigated the economic impact and reduced the uncertainty on the financial markets. During the autumn, infection rates have once again begun to increase and several countries have introduced new restrictions, which will dampen the economic recovery, even though it is uncertain to which extent.
The coronavirus pandemic has resulted in an exceptional stress for the real economy. Governments, central banks and supervisory authorities have implemented significant measures to dampen the crisis. This has helped to reduce the uncertainty on the financial markets. But we are in still in the middle of the crisis, and there is considerable uncertainty going forward.
The low interest rates are expected to remain low for a longer period of time. It could lead to greater risk-taking among various actors, and increased challenges for insurance undertakings.
Both the global and the Swedish economies appear to be slowing down. Low interest rates – which have resulted in high risk-taking and rising asset prices – are expected to remain low for a prolonged period of time. Resilience in the Swedish financial system is satisfactory in general. However, even if the banks’ resilience is satisfactory overall, FI makes the assessment that they need more capital to cover the risks in their lending to commercial real estate firms.
The economy continues to be strong, both in Sweden and globally, but it is now showing signs of a slow-down. Interest rates have been low for a long period of time, which has led to high risk-taking and rising asset prices. As a result, the risks in the financial system are elevated. The resilience in the Swedish financial system is satisfactory in general but continued high growth in debt fuelled by lending and investments related to residential property and commercial real estate require monitoring.
The Swedish economy continues to be strong, and resilience in the financial system is satisfactory. However, a long period of low interest rates and strong growth has resulted in an elevated risk appetite, high asset prices and high debt globally, among Swedish households and on the commercial real estate market. The high level of indebtedness makes the financial sector more sensitive to shocks, and, if necessary, FI will take additional measures to strengthen the resilience.
The Swedish economy continues to be strong and interest rates are extremely low, which contributes to high asset prices and low risk premiums. As global interest rates rise in the future, there is a risk for an abrupt increase in risk premiums and a fall in asset prices, which could be stressful for the financial system.
The Swedish economy is thriving, but a strong economy combined with low interestrates has resulted in high asset prices and rapidly rising household debt.
The Swedish economy is strong, but the consequences for financial stability from the combination of rising resource utilisation and very low interest rates are difficult to assess. There is a risk that imbalances are building up, and even though they are difficult to identify and measure, they are very important to monitor.
FI makes the assessment that the resilience of the financial system in Sweden is satisfactory, but vulnerabilities remain. The Swedish banks have buffers, but they fund themselves in capital markets, which makes the banking system vulnerable to shocks to confidence. Liquidity in systemically important securities markets has not changed in recent years.