A stable, well-functioning financial market for allA stable, well-functioning financial market for allResult
2024
Stability in the Financial System (2024:2): Improved outlook, but risk of set-backs
The outlook for financial stability has improved somewhat in the past six months. Sweden continues to experience a mild economic downturn, but interest rate cuts are contributing to improved optimism about the future. At the same time, the uncertain global economic and geopolitical situation is leading to heightened risks, in part in the form of cyber attacks. These are the conclusions of FI’s second stability report for the year.
Two expert reports on macroprudential policy measures
Amortisation requirements, the LTI ratio, and the LTV cap are macroprudential policy tools that are used in Sweden and many other countries. But what are the potential effects of these borrower-based measures? To answer to this question, Finansinspektionen commissioned two expert reports on the topic.
Nordic Baltic Crisis Simulation Exercise, 2024
To test the preparedness for a potential crisis situation, authorities from the Nordic-Baltic countries responsible for financial stability during this week conducted a financial crisis simulation exercise in the Nordic-Baltic region, involving three fictitious banks with cross-border activities.
FI leaves the countercyclical buffer rate unchanged
In accordance with its assessment in the most recent stability report, FI is leaving the countercyclical buffer rate unchanged in the third quarter. The buffer rate of 2 per cent, which was applied starting on 22 June 2023, shall thus continue to apply. The countercyclical buffer guide is calculated at 0 per cent.
Capital requirements for Swedish banks as of Q2 2024
Finansinspektionen publishes the capital requirements of the largest Swedish banks and credit institutions that belong to supervisory categories 1 and 2 as of the end of Q2 2024.
Decisions regarding reciprocation of macroprudential measures in Denmark, Portugal, Germany and Italy
Finansinspektionen has passed decisions concerning reciprocation of macroprudential measures in Denmark, Portugal, Germany and Italy.
FI leaves the countercyclical buffer rate unchanged
In accordance with its assessment in the most recent stability report, FI is leaving the countercyclical buffer rate unchanged in the second quarter. The buffer rate of 2 per cent, which was applied starting on 22 June 2023, shall thus continue to apply. The countercyclical buffer guide is calculated at 0 per cent.
Interest rate puts pressure on indebted households
Households continue to be under pressure from both higher interest rates and other costs. This is evident in FI’s mortgage report. The report looks at new mortgagors during the autumn of 2023. We can see that there are fewer mortgagors than in previous years. Home buyers also bought slightly less expensive homes and borrowed slightly less. Total lending to households has stagnated, but despite this household indebtedness continues to be high.
FI intends to extend banks’ risk weights floors for mortgages and commercial real estate lending
Finansinpektionen currently assesses that risks to Swedish mortgages and commercial properties remain and these will not be fully addressed when the EU’s second banking package enters into force on 1 January 2025. Therefore, FI intends to start the process during next year to extend the risk weight floors for mortgages and commercial real estate lending to at least 2027.
FI Analysis 45: High risks in small and mid-sized commercial real estate firms
Many smaller, unlisted commercial real estate (CRE) firms have a high loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and a low interest coverage ratio (ICR). This makes them vulnerable to a scenario with high interest rates and lower earnings. A new FI Analysis concludes that, given such a scenario, smaller CRE firms would constitute the majority of banks’ real estate sector-related credit risks.
