Large credit losses can result in otherwise profitable banks reporting a loss. This FI Analysis describes a methodology for estimating how large credit losses can be in a stressed macroeconomic scenario.
The tax rebate for interest expenses – the interest deduction – means that households borrow more, and can and want to pay more for homes. This means that the households experience an increase in both their liabilities and assets, which in turn could have an impact on the stability of the financial system. In this FI Analysis, we calculate the impact of a change to the interest deduction. The reason for this analysis is the direct link between interest deductions and households’ loans.
Commercial real estate firms are sensitive to changes in interest rate expenses and income. Following a shock, vulnerable commercial real estate firms could lead to credit losses for the banks.
The access of non-financial firms to credit is central for financial stability, particularly during financial crises. In recent years, the market for corporate bonds has grown steadily and currently plays an important role in firms’ financing. This analysis shows that it has not been easier to issue corporate bonds in Swedish krona during financial crises than to take a bank loan. This pattern deviates from previous research on the USA and the euro zone.
After the provisions regarding high-cost short-term credits were changed in 2018 – in part by introducing an interest rate ceiling and cost ceiling – these types of loans decreased sharply. It is probable that the reform has led to a decrease in the supply of high-cost short-term credits. It is also evident that several companies have stopped offering such loans.
The Swedish fixed-income market – which consists of the bond market, the money market and interest rate derivatives – is important for the government, municipalities, banks and firms to be able to finance their operations and manage risks. It is therefore of central importance to understand how these markets function and, more specifically, how liquid they are. This FI Analysis presents a new method for measuring market liquidity that focuses on government bonds and covered bonds.
This FI Analysis shows that households’ tendency to use mortgages for purchases other than buying a home decreased following the amortisation requirements.
This FI Analysis shows that the the increase in house prices is the primary reason it has become more difficult for young adults to buy a home.
A disorderly and abrupt increase in international market rates could lead to significantly higher term and equity risk premia. This is the conclusion of an analysis conducted by FI.
Under FI's stricter amortisation requirement, which went into effect on 1 March 2018, new mortgagors with debt in excess of 450 per cent of gross income must amortise 1 percentage point more of their loan per year in addition to the existing requirement. The objective of the stricter requirement is to strengthen resilience of households by decreasing the number of mortgagors who have high debt in relation to their income.
This FI Analysis describes how Swedish covered bonds function, how the regulation governing the cover pool is designed and how the cover pool is affected by a fall in house prices.
A new report from Finansinspektionen and the Swedish National Debt Office shows that the value of an implicit state guarantee for the major Swedish banks has decreased since the financial crisis in 2008–2009. This decrease is due to higher capital and liquidity requirements on the banks, a new regulation for managing banks in crisis and improved market conditions.
Reference rates are important since they are used in many financial contracts, and it is therefore crucial that they are fair, transparent and accurately reflect the underlying market.
Theprevailing low interest rate environment is challenging for pension managers who pledge a guaranteed rate of return to their beneficiaries.
This FI Analysis presents an assessment of the Swedish mortgage cap. The analysis indicates that the mortgage cap has changed household behaviour. Households with new mortgages borrow less than what they would have done if FI had not implemented the mortgage cap. They are also buying less expensive homes.
Households with high loan-to-income ratios, i.e. large loans in relation to income, are vulnerable. They are sensitive to rising interest rates since their monthly expenses are affected more than households with lower loan-to-income ratios. They are also somewhat more sensitive to a loss of income, for example if they become unemployed.
This FI Analysis shows that the amortisation requirement has helped households with new mortgages change their behavior. New mortgagors are taking smaller mortgages than what they would have done if FI had not implemented the amortisation requirement. These households are also buying less expensive homes.
SUMMARY: In Sweden, both the percentage of mortgages that have a variable interest rate and household debts have risen sharply. This combination has made house-holds sensitive to rising interest rates.
The vulnerability indicators FI identifies in this analysis show a slightly elevated level of vulnerability for liquidity. Several indicators contribute to this.
A leverage ratio requirement could contribute positively to financial stability during normal conditions in that it increases the robustness of banks' capital adequacy.
FI has identified a number of quantitative indicators that point toward factors in the insurance sector that could have an effect on financial stability. These indicators show that there was good resilience in the insurance sector at the end of the year.
House prices have been rising and, as a result, so has the debt of households in relation to their income – i.e. their debt-to-income (DTI) ratios. A DTI limit could slow this trend, but limiting households' opportunities to borrow would also slow consumption and economic activity.
This FI-analysis introduces a model for household debt in Sweden.
The market for covered bonds is important for bank funding and therefore financial stability. The requirements for banks to hold more capital and liquidity for their operations have been tightened since the financial crisis. These requirements affect the banks' costs of holding securities in the trading book and so their costs of acting as market makers.
FI regularly monitors the vulnerabilities in the financial system. FI is now taking this a step further by creating a categorization for grouping and studying indicators of vulnerability. A systematic review of indicators helps to identify and follow vulnerabilities, which makes it easier to understand the risks of financial or macroeconomic instability.
FI has decided to launch a new report series, FI-analysis. This is our first report in this series where FI presents studies and analysis of questions that is of particular importance to FI.