A stable, well-functioning financial market for allA stable, well-functioning financial market for allFI Analysis
FI’s assignment is to promote financial stability and strong consumer protection. The stability assignment has been expanded to include the prevention of financial imbalances with the aim of stabilising the credit market. It requires a more extensive analysis and FI becomes clearer about the positions that authority takes. FI therefore issues a series of reports entitled FI Analysis. This series presents investigations and analyses of key issues for FI’s area of responsibility. FI Analysis reports are issued several times a year.
2024
FI Analysis 45: High risks in small and mid-sized commercial real estate firms
Many smaller, unlisted commercial real estate (CRE) firms have a high loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and a low interest coverage ratio (ICR). This makes them vulnerable to a scenario with high interest rates and lower earnings. A new FI Analysis concludes that, given such a scenario, smaller CRE firms would constitute the majority of banks’ real estate sector-related credit risks.
FI Analysis No. 44: Most People Have Lost Money Trading Cryptocertificates
More than half of Swedes who traded in cryptocertificates over the past six years have lost money on their investments. This is despite the underlying market increasing by up to 500 percent during the studied period. This is shown in a new analysis by FI that examines Swedes' trading in cryptocertificates.
FI Analysis No. 42: Gender differences in investment behaviour
The study confirms previous results showing that women are underrepresented in the stock market. The differences arise as early as three years of age, which shows that adults more often buy stocks for boys than for girls. We also see that men generally have larger stock portfolios than women throughout life, although women increase their stock wealth later in life.
2023
FI Analysis No. 43: d-SRI: A systemic risk indicator for Sweden
In this FI-analysis we adapt the systemic risk indicator d-SRI to Swedish conditions. d-SRI is intended to give an early warning signal before crises caused by domestic imbalances arise. d-SRI indicates build-up of risks during the years leading up to the crisis in the 1990s, the 2000 dot-com crash, and the 2008 financial crisis. In present time when we see reduced credit growth and lower asset prices, d-SRI is showing that financial conditions are tight.
FI Analysis No. 41: Commercial real estate firms may need to reduce their debt
In this analysis, we estimate how much Swedish listed and larger privately owned commercial real estate firms need to reduce their debt in a climate of rising financing costs and falling property values. We calculate the firms need to reduce their debt to maintain certain levels of interest coverage ratio and loan-to-value.
FI Analysis No. 40: Winners and losers in the trading of meme stocks
In 2021, Gamestop, a relatively unknown American company, experienced a sudden increase in its stock price. The price increase had been orchestrated by a group of investors who had collaborated via a social media platform and successfully drove up the price of the stock by 1,500 per cent within days. Other stocks, including AMC, had exhibited similar patterns, giving rise to the term "meme stocks" due to the humorous elements found in the online forums where these stocks were discussed.
FI Analysis 38: Loans and payment problems among women and men
2023-04-14 | Reports
Among borrowers over the age of 45, it is more common for women than men to have a debt registered with the Enforcement Authority. One explanation could be that major life events, like a divorce, have more of an adverse impact on women. This is the conclusion of an analysis by the Enforcement Authority and Finansinspektionen
2022
FI Analysis No. 39: Are the capital buffers fulfilling their purpose?
The minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL) is designed in such a way that the banks can breach it before they breach the capital requirements. As a result, this can reduce the usability of the capital buffers. This is shown in FI’s analysis of how the capital buffers are impacted when a bank must meet both MREL and the capital requirements.
FI Analysis No. 37: Stress tests of funds’ liquidity risks
FI’s stress tests show that the majority of Swedish funds appear to be able to handle relatively large outflows in an effective manner. However, some corporate bond funds and a relatively large share of high-yield bond funds may experience liquidity problems under stressed market conditions.
FI Analysis No 36: Has FI’s risk weight floor had an impact on banks’ CRE lending?
In this FI Analysis, we study how the risk weight floor has impacted the banks’ lending to CRE firms using detailed lending data. The aim is to analyse whether the risk weight floor impacted the banks’ interest margins and the risk in their lending. We also investigate how the volume of bank loans and bonds to CRE firms has changed before and after the introduction of the risk weight floor.
2021
FI Analysis 35: Lender significance for repayment problems and debt at the Swedish Enforcement Authority
There are different types of lenders. They offer different types of loans, and their risk tolerance varies. The risk tolerance is evident in their business model, which consists in part of how they conduct their credit assessment. There are also different types of borrowers. Some want small loans, and others want big loans. Both the lender’s credit assessment and the borrower’s repayment capacity are often better for large loans. The small loans represent a large share of early repayment problems – reminders and collection notices. But the borrower can often pay back small loans before they are registered with the Swedish Enforcement Authority.
FI Analys No 34: Temporary amortisation exemption led to new mortgagors borrowing
The temporary amortisation exemption resulted in new mortgagors borrowing almost 4 per cent more and buying homes that were approximately 1 per cent more expensive, concludes a new FI Analysis.
FI Analysis No. 33: Household debt and resilience
The ability to borrow is beneficial to households in many ways. At the same time, debt can make their consumption more sensitive to unexpected changes in interest rates, income, and house prices. This, in turn, can affect how the economy evolves in a crisis. But measures that lead to lower debt don’t necessarily increase the resilience of all households. To assess the effects of borrower-based measures, it is necessary to also consider households’ balance sheets, in particular their liquid assets.
FI Analysis 32: Loans, Repayment Problems and Debts with the Swedish Enforcement Authority
Loans and other debts are of significance to repayment problems. This analysis focuses on the significance of loans to individual’s repayment problems.
FI Analysis 31: Funding structure of the major banks – historical trends
This FI analysis describes the funding structure of the major Swedish banks in the period 2002–2019. Consequently, the period analysed does not cover the ongoing pandemic and its impact on the financial markets through central banks’ and supervisory authorities’ various monetary policy and supervision measures.
FI Analysis 30: Internal price on carbon – what and why?
To reach the climate goals in the Paris Agreement, carbon emissions must go down. The most efficient way to achieve this is by raising the cost of emissions compared to today.
FI Analysis 29: Why do some borrowers experience payment problems?
Young borrowers and borrowers with low income have a higher risk of experiencing payment problems when taking non-mortgage loans. The risk decreases if the credit providers conduct more thorough credit assessments. These are the conclusions drawn in a new report from Finansinspektionen (FI).
FI Analysis 28: Liquid assets of Swedish households
Aggregate statistics indicate that Swedish households are holding significant assets in the form of cash, bank savings, fund shares and securities. The overall value corresponds today to an average of SEK 1 million per household. However, because these economic buffers are unevenly distributed between households, the average is a poor measure for assessing the risk of a significant drop in consumption following an economic shock.
FI Analysis 27: Non-financial firms and financial stability: a description of vulnerabilities
This FI Analysis describes how vulnerabilities from lending to non-financial firms arise and why FI needs to follow them to fulfil its assignment to safeguard financial stability.
2020
FI Analysis 26: Macro-based credit loss model for major Swedish banks
Large credit losses can result in otherwise profitable banks reporting a loss. This FI Analysis describes a methodology for estimating how large credit losses can be in a stressed macroeconomic scenario.
