The outlook for financial stability has improved somewhat in the past six months. Sweden continues to experience a mild economic downturn, but interest rate cuts are contributing to improved optimism about the future. At the same time, the uncertain global economic and geopolitical situation is leading to heightened risks, in part in the form of cyber attacks. These are the conclusions of FI’s second stability report for the year.
Amortisation requirements, the LTI ratio, and the LTV cap are macroprudential policy tools that are used in Sweden and many other countries. But what are the potential effects of these borrower-based measures? To answer to this question, Finansinspektionen commissioned two expert reports on the topic.
To test the preparedness for a potential crisis situation, authorities from the Nordic-Baltic countries responsible for financial stability during this week conducted a financial crisis simulation exercise in the Nordic-Baltic region, involving three fictitious banks with cross-border activities.
In accordance with its assessment in the most recent stability report, FI is leaving the countercyclical buffer rate unchanged in the third quarter. The buffer rate of 2 per cent, which was applied starting on 22 June 2023, shall thus continue to apply. The countercyclical buffer guide is calculated at 0 per cent.
Finansinspektionen publishes the capital requirements of the largest Swedish banks and credit institutions that belong to supervisory categories 1 and 2 as of the end of Q2 2024.
Finansinspektionen has passed decisions concerning reciprocation of macroprudential measures in Denmark, Portugal, Germany and Italy.
In accordance with its assessment in the most recent stability report, FI is leaving the countercyclical buffer rate unchanged in the second quarter. The buffer rate of 2 per cent, which was applied starting on 22 June 2023, shall thus continue to apply. The countercyclical buffer guide is calculated at 0 per cent.
Households continue to be under pressure from both higher interest rates and other costs. This is evident in FI’s mortgage report. The report looks at new mortgagors during the autumn of 2023. We can see that there are fewer mortgagors than in previous years. Home buyers also bought slightly less expensive homes and borrowed slightly less. Total lending to households has stagnated, but despite this household indebtedness continues to be high.
Finansinpektionen currently assesses that risks to Swedish mortgages and commercial properties remain and these will not be fully addressed when the EU’s second banking package enters into force on 1 January 2025. Therefore, FI intends to start the process during next year to extend the risk weight floors for mortgages and commercial real estate lending to at least 2027.
Many smaller, unlisted commercial real estate (CRE) firms have a high loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and a low interest coverage ratio (ICR). This makes them vulnerable to a scenario with high interest rates and lower earnings. A new FI Analysis concludes that, given such a scenario, smaller CRE firms would constitute the majority of banks’ real estate sector-related credit risks.
The outlook for financial stability has improved somewhat, and uncertainty has decreased, but we are still in the middle of a recession. Higher costs for both interest payments and other goods and services are putting pressure on households and firms. The worsened global security situation is also imposing increased demands on the operational resilience in the financial sectorn. These are the conclusions of this year's first stability report.
Finansinspektionen publishes the capital requirements of the largest Swedish banks and credit institutions that belong to supervisory categories 1 and 2 as of the end of Q1 2024
There is a lot of work left to do before the financial market fully contributes to a sustainable economy. For example, firms need to be better at identifying and integrating sustainability risks. One condition for this is that they have the right competence in sustainability-related matters. Firms also are responsible for preventing their operations from being used for criminal purposes. These are several of the conclusions we draw in our sustainability report that is being published today.
In accordance with its assessment in the most recent stability report, FI is leaving the countercyclical buffer rate unchanged in the first quarter. The buffer rate of 2 per cent, which was applied starting on 22 June 2023, shall thus continue to apply. The countercyclical buffer guide is calculated at 0 per cent.
Finansinspektionen publishes the capital requirements of the largest Swedish banks and credit institutions that belong to supervisory categories 1 and 2 as of the end of Q4 2023.
Are consumers being offered the right services on the financial market? How is the sector delivering crucial services in an uncertain global environment? How are financial corporations protecting themselves from being used for criminal purposes? These are some of the questions we will focus on in our supervision this year.
In this FI-analysis we adapt the systemic risk indicator d-SRI to Swedish conditions. d-SRI is intended to give an early warning signal before crises caused by domestic imbalances arise. d-SRI indicates build-up of risks during the years leading up to the crisis in the 1990s, the 2000 dot-com crash, and the 2008 financial crisis. In present time when we see reduced credit growth and lower asset prices, d-SRI is showing that financial conditions are tight.
FI has decided to extend the risk weight floor by two years, from 31 December 2023 to 30 December 2025.
In accordance with its assessment in the most recent stability report, FI is leaving the countercyclical buffer rate unchanged in the fourth quarter. The buffer rate of 2 per cent, which was applied starting on 22 June 2023, shall thus continue to apply. The countercyclical buffer guide is calculated at 0 per cent.
On 6 December, the EU Member States approved a banking package that implements the last parts of the Basel III agreement in the EU. The European Parliament is also expected to approve the agreed rules in the near future.