Households continue to be under pressure from both higher interest rates and other costs. This is evident in FI’s mortgage report. The report looks at new mortgagors during the autumn of 2023. We can see that there are fewer mortgagors than in previous years. Home buyers also bought slightly less expensive homes and borrowed slightly less. Total lending to households has stagnated, but despite this household indebtedness continues to be high.
Many smaller, unlisted commercial real estate (CRE) firms have a high loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and a low interest coverage ratio (ICR). This makes them vulnerable to a scenario with high interest rates and lower earnings. A new FI Analysis concludes that, given such a scenario, smaller CRE firms would constitute the majority of banks’ real estate sector-related credit risks.
The outlook for financial stability has improved somewhat, and uncertainty has decreased, but we are still in the middle of a recession. Higher costs for both interest payments and other goods and services are putting pressure on households and firms. The worsened global security situation is also imposing increased demands on the operational resilience in the financial sectorn. These are the conclusions of this year's first stability report.
There is a lot of work left to do before the financial market fully contributes to a sustainable economy. For example, firms need to be better at identifying and integrating sustainability risks. One condition for this is that they have the right competence in sustainability-related matters. Firms also are responsible for preventing their operations from being used for criminal purposes. These are several of the conclusions we draw in our sustainability report that is being published today.
In this FI-analysis we adapt the systemic risk indicator d-SRI to Swedish conditions. d-SRI is intended to give an early warning signal before crises caused by domestic imbalances arise. d-SRI indicates build-up of risks during the years leading up to the crisis in the 1990s, the 2000 dot-com crash, and the 2008 financial crisis. In present time when we see reduced credit growth and lower asset prices, d-SRI is showing that financial conditions are tight.
In this analysis, we estimate how much Swedish listed and larger privately owned commercial real estate firms need to reduce their debt in a climate of rising financing costs and falling property values. We calculate the firms need to reduce their debt to maintain certain levels of interest coverage ratio and loan-to-value.
The higher interest rate means that households and companies need to make adjustments to their finances. Finansinspektionen (FI) is now seeing a decline in risk-taking. However, the change in the state of the economy and uncertainty regarding how long the higher interest rates will remain pose a risk to financial stability. Commercial real estate undertakings with high debt are particularly at risk should the interest rates remain high. These are the conclusions of the second Stability Report of the year.
Since the publication of the stability report last autumn, inflation has slowed somewhat in the large economies but is still significantly higher than the central banks’ inflation targets. Monetary policy has therefore been tightened further, and interest rates continued to rise. High inflation and rising interest rates mean that the forecasts for global economic development continue to be weak.
Mortgagors are under pressure from rising interest rates. At the same time, the majority of new mortgagors continue to have good margins in their personal finances. These are the conclusions drawn by Finansinspektionen in this year’s Swedish Mortgage Market report, which is being presented today.
The minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL) is designed in such a way that the banks can breach it before they breach the capital requirements. As a result, this can reduce the usability of the capital buffers. This is shown in FI’s analysis of how the capital buffers are impacted when a bank must meet both MREL and the capital requirements.