The outlook for financial stability has improved somewhat, and uncertainty has decreased, but we are still in the middle of a recession. Higher costs for both interest payments and other goods and services are putting pressure on households and firms. The worsened global security situation is also imposing increased demands on the operational resilience in the financial sectorn. These are the conclusions of this year's first stability report.
In this analysis, we estimate how much Swedish listed and larger privately owned commercial real estate firms need to reduce their debt in a climate of rising financing costs and falling property values. We calculate the firms need to reduce their debt to maintain certain levels of interest coverage ratio and loan-to-value.
The higher interest rate means that households and companies need to make adjustments to their finances. Finansinspektionen (FI) is now seeing a decline in risk-taking. However, the change in the state of the economy and uncertainty regarding how long the higher interest rates will remain pose a risk to financial stability. Commercial real estate undertakings with high debt are particularly at risk should the interest rates remain high. These are the conclusions of the second Stability Report of the year.
During 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) carried out a special assessment of the financial sector in Sweden, a so-called FSAP (Financial Sector Assessment Program). FSAPs are conducted regularly for member countries with systemically important financial markets. The most recent FSAP for Sweden by the IMF was in 2016.
In 2019, FI’s overarching mandate was expanded to include a responsibility to ensure that the financial system contributes to sustainable development. FI is also the responsible supervisory authority for a number of new regulations related to sustainable finance that are the result of the EU’s ambitious sustainability agenda.
Rising interest rates, decreased risk-taking and a slowing economy are weighing on highly indebted commercial real estate firms and households. The rapid transition to higher interest rates and a decreased willingness to take risk means financial stability risks have increased since spring. At the same time, this transition may lead to lower risk-taking and indebtedness in the long run, thus lowering stability risks.
High inflation has led to rapidly rising interest rates. Given the current rapid change in conditions, both participants on the financial markets and borrowers need to transition quickly. In the short term, this means elevated risks and greater uncertainty. The already high risks in the commercial real estate sector have continued to increase.
FI’s stress tests show that the majority of Swedish funds appear to be able to handle relatively large outflows in an effective manner. However, some corporate bond funds and a relatively large share of high-yield bond funds may experience liquidity problems under stressed market conditions.
Erik Thedéen, Director General of Finansinspektionen (FI), spoke at the Öresundsmarknaden conference about FI’s view on the commercial real estate market.
FI’s Director General Erik Thedéen participated in a panel discussion on the opportunities and risks associated with increased application of artificial intelligence and machine learning within lending and advice to households. Before he described FI’s view on this topic, Thedéen commented briefly on FI’s current assessment of the stability of the Swedish financial system.
Interest rates are rising rapidly in the wake of high inflation. High interest rates and lower risk appetite are placing downward pressure on risk-taking and asset prices. In the long term, this can slow the growth of debt and benefit financial stability. However, the large debts that built up over the extended period of low interest rates are putting pressure on highly indebted households and firms.
Interest rates and interest rate expectations have increased in 2022 due to high and rising inflation. One sector that is vulnerable to rising interest rates is the commercial real estate sector. FI has also noted that liquidity on the bond markets has decreased, and the functionality of the corporate bond market is once again impaired.
The financial sector must quickly become better at preventing and handling cyber threats. Customers and society at large must be able to trust that the critical services offered by financial corporations will function even during periods of uncertainty and in the presence of threats. As commissioned by the government, Finansinspektionen (FI) therefore has proposed a number of measures to increase resilience to cyber attacks in the financial sector.
” Ultimately, this is about energy efficiency. Energy is a scarce resource, and as a society, we have invested heavily in energy-efficiency improvements across all sectors. We need to consider a similar technology shift for crypto-assets.”
Sweden’s economy has largely recovered and there is good access to financing in the financial system. The Riksbank should therefore begin the phase-out of asset purchasing to avoid further increase of risk-taking. Amongst others, FI sees growing risks within the commercial real estate companies.
The economic recovery has been stronger than expected this year, in part due to strong support measures during the pandemic. At the same time, risks are building up, writes Finansinspektionen (FI) in its second stability report of the year. The report is being presented today by Director General Erik Thedéen and Chief Economist Henrik Braconier at a press conference.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will conduct a review of the financial sector and the work of the authorities on financial stability, a so-called FSAP (Financial Sector Assessment Program) in 2022. FSAPs are conducted regularly for countries with systemically important financial markets. In its report, the IMF will highlight any flaws and risks in the system and propose measures to deal with them.
“The technology behind crypto-assets has the potential to create value for society, but crypto-assets like Bitcoin also pose significant risks,” said Erik Thedéen, when he spoke about the development of crypto-assets today at a seminar arranged by the Swedish Investor Relations Association.
The economy is continuing to recover. Support measures have been necessary to speed up the recovery, but they need to be gradually phased out as the economy strengthens. This applies primarily to measures that are associated with the build-up of stability risks.
The support measures have been important for offsetting the economic impact of the crisis and speeding up the recovery. However, they can also contribute to greater stability risks in the long run, concludes Finansinspektionen (FI) in this year’s first report on the stability in the financial system, which is being published today.
Climate change is an existential threat to mankind. In order to meet this threat, we need extensive policy decisions. In particular, carbon prices must go up. The private sector and the financial market can contribute, said Finansinspektionen’s Director General Erik Thedéen at the Hållbara Finanser 2021 conference (Sustainable Finances). By already preparing now to be able to quickly report in accordance with future international standards on corporate sustainability reporting and also voluntarily using and reporting internal carbon pricing.
Finansinspektionen has an assignment to promote the financial system’s contribution to sustainable development. The sustainability report outlines the current sustainability issues that are related to the financial sector and lists examples of what FI is working on in this area.
Are the banks conducting thorough credit assessments when customers apply for consumer credit? Are smaller banks and payment service firms taking sufficient measures to prevent money laundering? What risks will the coronavirus pandemic pose in the future? These are three areas that Finansinspektionen (FI) will look more closely at in 2021.
Consumer protection, money laundering and risks that the coronavirus pandemic may pose in the future are three areas that FI will look more closely at in 2021.
Activities that constitute “terrorist financing” are described in the Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing (Prevention) Act (the Anti-Money Laundering Act).
The pandemic has triggered a deep economic recession in many countries, even if a slight recovery has begun. Extensive support measures have mitigated the economic impact and reduced the uncertainty on the financial markets. During the autumn, infection rates have once again begun to increase and several countries have introduced new restrictions, which will dampen the economic recovery, even though it is uncertain to which extent.
An increase in the spread of the coronavirus will dampen the recovery in European economies and, in the long run, this could impact financial stability, writes Finansinspektionen (FI) in this year’s second stability report, which will be published today.
Henrik Braconier, Chief Economist at FI, spoke on risks related to low interest rates at SNS/SHOF’s Finance Panel: Corporate Finance in a Low Interest Rate Environment.
The access of non-financial firms to credit is central for financial stability, particularly during financial crises. In recent years, the market for corporate bonds has grown steadily and currently plays an important role in firms’ financing. This analysis shows that it has not been easier to issue corporate bonds in Swedish krona during financial crises than to take a bank loan. This pattern deviates from previous research on the USA and the euro zone.
Erik Thedéen, Finansinspektionen's Director General and Chair of IOSCO's Task Force on Sustainable Finance made a speech at the conference Driving Global Standards on Sustainable Finance.
The COVID-19 pandemic has incurred large human and economic costs and also affected the financial sector. Maintaining own funds in financial institutions is important both for ensuring the resilience of the financial system and supporting banks' lending through this crisis.
Governments, central banks, and authorities around the world have taken powerful measures to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. These measures also helped dampen uncertainty on the financial markets. By utilising available buffers and continuing to lend to firms and households, the financial sector can dampen the impact of the crisis. It is also important to remember that the economic crisis is not over, and uncertainty is therefore high, notes Finansinspektionen (FI) in its first stability report of the year.
The coronavirus pandemic has resulted in an exceptional stress for the real economy. Governments, central banks and supervisory authorities have implemented significant measures to dampen the crisis. This has helped to reduce the uncertainty on the financial markets. But we are in still in the middle of the crisis, and there is considerable uncertainty going forward.
The global sustainability network NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System) is publishing today a report on how banks around the world consider climate-related risks in their lending. The report shows that this is occurring more frequently, but it is at the same time difficult to see which loans constitute a lower risk. This is because, for example, there is no international classification and a shared perception of which assets are “green” and “brown”.
During an extraordinary meeting today, Monday, 16 March, FI’s Board of Directors decided to adopt a countercyclical buffer rate of 0 per cent in accordance with the proposal presented on Friday, 13 March 2020.
The spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is having a financial impact on firms and households around the world. There is considerable uncertainty about how much the disease will impact the global economy. This economic uncertainty also affects the financial system.
The rate at which household debt is increasing has slowed the past three years. The two amortisation requirements that FI introduced contributed to this change. But the low interest rates entail risks. The debt of commercial real estate companies has been increasing sharply, and the banks have large exposures to the sector. FI decided today to raise the capital requirements for bank loans for commercial real estate. Erik Thedéen also noted that cyber threats are a challenge facing society as a whole, and cooperation is needed on a broad front.
FI will explore the possibility of advocating both nationally and internationally increased disclosure of firms’ internal carbon pricing.
The low interest rates are expected to remain low for a longer period of time. It could lead to greater risk-taking among various actors, and increased challenges for insurance undertakings.
A disorderly and abrupt increase in international market rates could lead to significantly higher term and equity risk premia. This is the conclusion of an analysis conducted by FI.
FI’s Director General spoke today at the Finansdagen conference in Stockholm.
Both the global and the Swedish economies appear to be slowing down. Low interest rates – which have resulted in high risk-taking and rising asset prices – are expected to remain low for a prolonged period of time. Resilience in the Swedish financial system is satisfactory in general. However, even if the banks’ resilience is satisfactory overall, FI makes the assessment that they need more capital to cover the risks in their lending to commercial real estate firms.
Finansinspektionen (FI) considers the firms in the Swedish financial system to have sufficient resilience for withstanding a weaker economy. However, commercial real estate firms are vulnerable to shocks. FI therefore makes the assessment that the banks need more capital for these exposures. This is one of the conclusions in FI’s first stability report for the year, which is being presented today.
This FI Analysis describes how Swedish covered bonds function, how the regulation governing the cover pool is designed and how the cover pool is affected by a fall in house prices.
FI is continuing to analyse the event that occurred in September 2018 when a member on the commodity market was declared in default. We describe here several of the issues that FI is currently analysing. We are also publishing a discussion paper that FI wrote to contribute to an ongoing international discussion on auctions as a method to manage a default in a central counterparty.
Low interest rates have contributed to high risk-taking, rising asset prices and increasing debt. Higher interest rates in the next few years could reduce risk-taking and thus dampen the build-up of risk. However, unexpectedly large interest rate fluctuations and uncertain global developments could also test the financial sector’s resilience. These are some of the conclusions Finansinspektionen (FI) draws in this year’s second report on the stability in the financial system. The report will be presented at a press conference today.
The economy continues to be strong, both in Sweden and globally, but it is now showing signs of a slow-down. Interest rates have been low for a long period of time, which has led to high risk-taking and rising asset prices. As a result, the risks in the financial system are elevated. The resilience in the Swedish financial system is satisfactory in general but continued high growth in debt fuelled by lending and investments related to residential property and commercial real estate require monitoring.
Despite the positive progression over the past few weeks, there is still some uncertainty surrounding Brexit. FI has previously identified the limited access to clearing services as one of the consequences of Brexit that could have a major impact on Swedish firms. The European Commission’s communication that it will take action to manage risks to financial stability that are associated with clearing is therefore welcomed. At the same time, though, a hard Brexit could create other types of frictions that affect Swedish firms. It is therefore of utmost importance that Swedish firms continue to prepare for Brexit.
FI is publishing today three reports on sustainability. The reports show that the work with sustainability is progressing on several fronts and that the industry’s own initiatives, where relevant, are working. But there is still a lot of work left to be done. FI is also publishing a follow-up report for the Government on FI's work with sustainability-related matters in 2018.
FI has conducted a number of supervision activities related to sustainability at the same time as the organisation has been partly restructured and received additional resources. During the year, FI's work has focused on integrating sustainability-related matters into its ongoing supervision, a project that will continue and be intensified.
Finansinspektionen proposes to raise the countercyclical buffer rate to 2,5 percent. The rate is currently at 2 percent. The change will be effective from the 19 September 2019.
The Swedish economy continues to be strong, and resilience in the financial system is satisfactory. However, a long period of low interest rates and strong growth has resulted in an elevated risk appetite, high asset prices and high debt globally, among Swedish households and on the commercial real estate market. The high level of indebtedness makes the financial sector more sensitive to shocks, and, if necessary, FI will take additional measures to strengthen the resilience.
The Swedish economy continues to be strong, and resilience in the financial system is satisfactory. However, a long period of low interest rates and strong growth has resulted in an elevated risk appetite, high asset prices and high debt. This makes the financial sector more sensitive to shocks, writes Finansinspektionen (FI) in the first Stability Report of the year, which is being presented today.
The Swedish Ministry of Finance, the Riksbank, Finansinspektionen (the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority) and the Swedish National Debt Office in its role as resolution authority, have produced, together with their equivalents in Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania and Norway a new Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation and coordination on cross-border financial stability.
Finansinspektionen is responsible for macroprudential policy in Sweden, which includes both promoting financial stability and counteracting financial imbalances. We are also tasked with promoting a high level of consumer protection on the financial markets. One of the reasons that we have been given the responsibility for macroprudential policy is that financial crises have proven themselves to be very expensive.
Finansinspektionens Director General Erik Thedéens speech in the Standing Committee on Finance the 23 januari 2018.
Finansinspektionen’s (FI’s) 2012 risk report 2012 continues to focus on unease on financial markets, where the greatest risk to the Swedish financial system is still a deepened sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Because of low market rates, life insurance undertakings are under pressure, and FI now sees a risk of consumers ending up in a squeeze as the firms review their commitments. This year too, FI views the financial advice market with concern. In this market, consumers are being invited to invest in complex products while advisors receive commissions.
Sweden has remained relatively stable in a turbulent period but during this time the risk level in the Swedish financial system has also risen. The uncertainty in surrounding markets has meant that banks’ liquidity risks and the impact of low interest rates on life insurance undertakings remain in focus. Finansinspektionen also believes there is a risk that the sale of complex products to consumers will increase.